CBN Approves $10k Per Week FX Sale To BDC’s, Net FX Inflows Drop For The First Time Since November 2016

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has slightly modified its forex operations with Bureau de Change (BDCs) operators in the country. According to Reuters, the CBN claims that the modifications are geared towards ensuring forex availability in the market.

• The first of these modifications involve the sale of dollars to the BDCs twice a week instead of the weekly affair that was hitherto in place.
• Secondly, the CBN will also increase the amount of dollars it offers to each BDC, from the current $8,000 up to $10,000.
• Thirdly, a new rate will be set for the sale of USD to the BDCs, as well as a cap on how much the BDCs sell to the public. The new rates, the apex bank said, will be released next week.

This announcement by the CBN comes about a week after the President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators in Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, cried out over the unfair competition the BDCs were facing from both the parallel market and the commercial banks.

While the former was already selling at a lower rate than the CBN sells to the BDCs, the latter were offered a wide profit margin, a privilege the BDCs were not granted. However, it seems that the CBN is taking steps to correct the situation with its earlier adjustment of the exchange rate as sales to banks is now N357/$ while sale from banks to the public is capped at N360/$1.

Meanwhile, Official records of the CBN indicates that the external reserves as at March 29, 2017 currently stands at $30,296,992,832 . Gross external reserves was $30,340,326,322 as at the 24th of March 2017.

Quick takes

• The Central Bank has sold over $2 billion in the last one month since it introduced a new FX intervention policy that is directed at the retail end of the FX market.
• Nigeria’s external reserves was about $25.5 billion at the end of 2016 with over $5 billion accruing in the first quarter of 2017.
• The largest increase recorded was in the month of January where external reserves added a net amount of $2.3 billion. Another $1.4 billion was added in February 2017.
• As at March 29, the external reserves added a net inflow of just $650 million
• This is the lowest net inflows since November 2016 when a negative outflows of $579 million
• We believe that the reduction in net inflows is direct result of the ratcheting up of dollar sales through banks in the last one month
• The CBN had on February 20th announced a new FX intervention policy which involved selling FX directly to retail investors, forcing rates in the black market to fall below N400 from a high of N522/$1.
• Black market FX rates trades at about N385 compared to CBN retail rate of N362.
• Nigeria’s FX reserves has increased in recent months after recording a period of relative peace in the Niger Delta.

CBN Inflows

• Data from the CBN shows oil inflows for January and February was $615 million and $842 million respectively.
• Non-oil inflows is currently at $1.9 billion and $1.5 billion for January and February respectively.
• Both oil and non-oil inflows pass through the CBN.
• Total cash inflows from autonomous sources was $2.1 billion and $2,9 billion for January and February respectively. It was about $4.2 billion in December 2016.
• Total cash inflows from autonomous sources was $2.1 billion and $2,9 billion for January and February respectively. It was about $4.2 billion in December 2016.
• Total cash inflows into domiciliaroy accounts (which is a major portion of inflows into autonomous sources) about $1.2 billion and $1.7 billion for January and February respectively.
• CBN February data also shows total net inflows was $5.4 billion compared to outflows of $4.1 billion. It was $4.7 billion/$3.5 billion in January 2017
• Net outfl

FX Balances last one year.