The elimination of China’s strict one-child policy has failed to boost birth rates significantly, prompting local governments to call for additional measures to encourage childbearing and stave off demographic decline. China introduced the one-child policy in 1979 when the Communist party feared runaway population growth. It was scrapped in late 2015 following years of warnings from demographers over low birth rates and an ageing population.
Recent results from local governments’ annual population surveys have provided the first hard evidence of how Chinese families are responding to the policy change.
Some provincial governments are calling for policies to encourage larger families. A report by Hunan province’s statistics bureau said authorities should consider childcare subsidies, paternity as well maternity leave, and additional days of leave for working parents to care for sick children.
Crude birth rates in Guangxi and Gansu edged down in 2016 from a year earlier. Both poor, western provinces have a large share of ethnic minorities, who were already exempt from the one-child policy, but are now assimilating the low-birth habits of the richer ethnic Han majority.
More surprising are the minuscule birth rate increases in China’s heartland. In Jiangxi province, the birth rate ticked up from 13.2 births per 1,000 people in 2015 to 13.4 last year, while in central Shaanxi province the rate rose from 10.1 to 10.6. The overall number of women of childbearing age has declined, meaning the potential impact of looser policy is limited, but changing social norms also play a role.
“Women’s attitudes towards childbirth have undergone a fundamental change. It’s no longer the traditional view of ‘more children means more happiness’,” said He Yafu, an independent demographics expert. “Women are pursuing their own education and career development. The opportunity costs of having a second child are large.”
Chart showing births per 1000 people in selected countries, 1960 and 2014
Even before the elimination of the one-child policy, exceptions had proliferated over the previous decade, meaning that many families were already free to have a second child. China has not yet published its national crude birth rate for 2016. The figure was 12.1 births per 1,000 people in 2015, down from 21 in 1960. In Italy and Japan the figure is eight, according to the World Bank.
Wealthier families were also willing in the past to pay fines levied on those who violated the one-child policy. In 2014, acclaimed film director Zhang Yimou paid a $1.2m “social maintenance fee” to authorities in eastern Jiangsu province for having three children.
Population ageing poses serious challenges for China’s economy and society in the coming years. The population aged 15 to 64 peaked in 2013, and the ratio of children and elderly to working-age Chinese began rising in 2011. China’s pension system is severely underfunded given the payouts due to the coming wave of retirees.
Hu Xingdou, economics professor at Beijing Institute of Technology, said rising costs for housing and education had increased the burden of raising children. Meanwhile, the development of a more comprehensive social security system has reduced the impulse towards large families. Traditionally, parents relied on children for support in old age.
“Besides, entertainment options are so plentiful these days, so there’s a substitution effect — by not having children, you can save time and money, while enriching your own life,” said Mr Hu.
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